Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. In early March 2023, the Labour Party continue to consolidate their substantial lead over the Conservatives, one which is now trending at 21%.. Polling averages extrapolated in the 3 weeks to 2 March place Labour on 47.3%, the Conservatives on 26.8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9.3%. Indeed between October 2020 and January 2021, the two major parties were running neck and neck. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off Sturgeon Still Scotland's Most Popular Politician Despite 12% Margin Against Independence, Lesley Riddoch: A Nordic solution to Scotlands invisibility within the UK, Tories could be reduced to third UK party, shock opinion poll warns, Nicola Sturgeon responds to popularity rating drop amid trans prisoner row. The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". In the case of Northern Ireland, with its own political parties, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the LucidTalk opinion poll of 3 February. The end of 2021, showed how quickly politics can change. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or Following Margaret Thatchers departure from Downing Street, support for Scottish independence fell back slightly and was polling around 30% in the middle of the 1990s. The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Please click 'Sign in and Subscribe' to continue. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. The latest Panelbase survey. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. conservative party Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn is not allowed to stand as a Labour MP at the next election would he still get your vote? In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. The Japanese midfielder was handed the February Player of the Month award. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted following Kwasi Kwarteng's 'mini-Budget'shows the Tories have taken a severe hit following the poor reception to the Growth Plan. @BritainElects. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". In results published for the survey taken March 24-25, 2022 . In February 2023, 47 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in a . July 9, 2020 YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal fur and do support a #FurFreeBritain; Government urged to end UK fur sales RT-Images/iStock.com Red fox lying in leaves LONDONBritish citizens overwhelmingly agree that the time has come for Britain to be fur-free. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. The YouGov Cost of Living Segmentation YouGov 12:02 7-Feb-23. It was one of the biggest news stories of our. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). conducted. Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. ", 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom, Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence&oldid=1142782908, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Conservative support then fell by a further 6% as the first Downing Street party allegations emerged. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. However support for Scottish independence grew significantly during the 1980s, particularly as Margaret Thatchers tenure in office continued. In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally. This drop off appears to dovetail with a growth in support in the opinion polls for the Scottish labour party under Anas Sarwar. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . A poll of more than 1,000 people . Related: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. The leader of the SNP has insisted her party was "not divided". Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? The previous YouGov covered the 23rd - 26th of January. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. % 28 45 9 4 1 3 7 2 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. By clicking 'Sign in and Subscribe' you agree to us subscribing you to our newsletter in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Legal Notice.Emails, which may be sent daily or less frequently, may include marketing elements. A YouGov poll in March of last year found that 55% backed keeping the monarchy . As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Last updated Feb 28, 2023 View all Articles (514) Voting Intention: Con 23%, Labour 46% politics 1 day ago Trackers Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. Company number: SC669393. Please try different keywords. The Aberdeen youth product is training with the under-21s after falling out-of-favour on Tyneside. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. The historic oil recipe is based on what was used at the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, the formula of which has been used for hundreds of years. In the first three weeks of her premiership, the Labour lead over the Conservatives extended to 11%. He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament". Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. /Which party are you most inclined to support? New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. 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US ; About ; For business ; . If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. Trump. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. 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Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. However, there was even worse news for the SNP in the other new poll released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on Thursday night and conducted on November 2-3. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. A total of 21 per cent said they didnt know., UnHerd Britain 2023, published on 10 Feb 2023Full results, YouGov poll, reported in The Times on 05 Feb 2023. Our mission is to hold the powerful to account. Redfield and Wilton (26 February) which placed Labour on 51%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. All Rights Reserved. It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. N.B. @britainelects. It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. YouGov found . Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. The survey puts Yes and No roughly neck-and-neck, which has been a consistent trend in polling for over a year. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? Sorry, no headlines or news topics were found. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. and given the options of "Yes" and "No". That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . ), Lord Ashcroft poll, reported in Holyrood on 13 Feb 2023Full results. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. The latest survey from YouGov has put Labour on 46% and the . Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeons Resignation? However as the Scottish parliament became fully operational in Edinburgh, support for independence initially waned, trending around 30% in the first decade of the twentieth century. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: Explore what the world thinks, discover our solutions, and join our community to share your opinion. Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here. The Conservative party regained a minor amount of ground in the first 3 weeks of the Rishi Sunak premiership, but Mr Sunaks honeymoon period has been short lived, and those advances stalled soon after Jeremy Hunts financial statement. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. We will not share your email address with any third parties. Back to 1970s., BlackRock Throgmorton Trust Impressive run continues, Police arrest fugitive suspected of stabbing mother and daughter to death, EU workers contribute 2,300 more in taxes than the average Brit, EuroMillions Results for Friday 24 June 2022 Tonights winning numbers, Domestic abuse calls up 25% in coronavirus lockdown charity, International press document Britains Brexit bregret, World War II paratrooper says Brexit is breaking his heart on his 100th birthday. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunak's party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. Nicola Sturgeon Expected To Resign As Scottish First Minister Today But Why? As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Please click 'Create Account and Subscribe' to create a new account and subscribe to our email alerts. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free advertising for a rival, The 72-year-old Glaswegian left Radio to join Greatest Hits Radio in April after the Beeb told him to step down 17 days early, Teaching strikes held off as union on brink of striking pay deal. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. All rights reserved. Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain. Champion Newspapers Limited 20:21 22-Feb-23. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. In the early part of the 2010s, with a Conservative coalition government in Westminster, and with the SNP focused on holding an indepdence referendum in Scotland, support for Scottish independence grew further. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, has support for Yes at its lowest level since just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson's Conservative party earn an . As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".