The morale of the people up there is bad. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Weve never done that before.. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. To accept cookies, click continue. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. We need election reform.. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. He considers Trump pro-life. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Medicare is becoming a joke. And its never going to come back.. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. That is a very good thing to have. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I hope.. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. This claim is basically absurd. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Republican Gov. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. He says Democratic Gov. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. He loves this country. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Farming also is huge here. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Our roads need to be fixed. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. SACRAMENTO . What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Theres too much corruption. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Theyre scared. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. What happened to our Democratic Party? Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. I dont watch TV. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Peoples common sense level is cooked. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally.
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